TRENDS AND SHOCKS IN GLOBAL FOOD PRICE DYNAMICS: A THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE

Descripción

This paper investigates the underlying drivers of global food price trends and volatility , asking how long-term declines in baseline prices coexist with episodic spikes. We adopt a conceptual–theoretical approach, synthesizing existing data and literature (World Bank commodity outlooks, FAO reports, etc.) to formulate a coherent framework. We argue that secular productivity and inventory growth exert downward pressure on real food prices, while climate shocks, policy interventions, and macroeconomic disruptions cause episodic volatility. Central to our contribution are two novel conceptual moves : (i) a “food price resilience threshold” hypothesis, whereby global stock-to-use ratios above a critical level dampen price swings, whereas ratios below the threshold amplify even modest shocks; and (ii) the concept of “geopolitical commodity contagion,” which posits that fracturing trade networks and export restrictions can synchronize and magnify price changes across multiple food commodities. We link these claims to observable trends: for example, improved harvests in 2024–25 raise inventories and soften prices, while the Black Sea Grain Initiative…

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