Climate change reshapes the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a Neotropical seed dispersal system

Description

Aim : Global changes will redistribute biodiversity, reshaping ecological interactions and ecosystem processes. The distribution decoupling of plants and their mutualistic seed dispersers, for instance, may have overlooked eco-evolutionary effects. How animal-dispersed plants will respond to changes in the distribution of their seed dispersers is, however, an open question. Here, we forecast the consequences of climate change and frugivory interactions for the spatial distribution and seed size evolution of a Neotropical palm. Location : Atlantic forests of South America Time period : Present day, end of 21st Century Major taxa studied: Thirty-two species of frugivorous birds, and a palm ( Euterpe edulis ). Methods : Future patterns of animal-plant co-occurrence were derived from ecological niche models, climate forecasts, projections of future forest loss, and seed dispersal simulations. We further explored the evolutionary effect of the spatial reorganization of interactions by modelling palm seed sizes as function of changes in the distribution of frugivore traits. Results : Our models indicate that future climate change and deforestation may reduce the palm's suitable…

Description from Zenodo, shortened.

Files (100)

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• TIFEuterpe_Baryphthengus_ruficapillus_rcp85.tif30 kB
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• TIFPipile_jacutinga_rcp45.tif30 kB

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